What did the recent election really mean?

Why some candidates won, why some lost and what happens next

By BY POLINA OLSEN

article created on: 2008-11-15T00:00:00

When Barack Obama won the historic 2008 presidential election, some Democrats believed their party had realigned and transformed. Red states became blue, and results showed stunning gains among young and Latino voters. Did this election signal a new era of Democratic dominance?

Not so fast, according to political analyst and Northwest Strategies President Len Bergstein, who spoke at the Oregon American Jewish Committee Luncheon Lecture on Nov 12. Held in the law offices of Perkins Coie on Northwest Couch Street, 22 people heard Bergstein reflect on why some candidates won, why some lost and what happens next.

Before the election, Bergstein noted, only 29 percent of Oregonians believed the country was on the right track. He thinks Obama’s message of change took advantage of the public’s anxiety and lack of faith in government. He also credits the dramatic primary battle between Hillary Clinton and Obama for bringing out the Democratic vote.

According to Bergstein, Obama was a change candidate, had fantastic organization and made good financial decisions—like refusing public financing. Quoting the Nov 8, 2008, issue of the Economist magazine Bergstrom said: “[Obama] is a man of great dignity, superior talents and high ideals. In choosing him, America has shown once again its unrivalled capacity to renew itself, and to surprise.”

On the Republican side, Bergstein said, a dramatic morality tale unfolded as McCain rose from the ashes during the primary but then, in his own words, “took the low road to the highest office in the land.”

Bergstein added that McCain never freed himself from Bush, never offered a compelling or consistent narrative, lost his moral competence and ran a divisive campaign.

“Clearly, the economic meltdown was the defining moment in this campaign from which McCain never recovered,” Bergstein said. “[Voters] came to see Barack Obama as a legitimate president and McCain as someone whom they couldn’t trust. He was jumping from thing to thing, and this undermined the message that he was the experienced candidate.”

All this leads Bergstein to wonder if the election results reflected a unique situation rather than, as some pundit believe, a permanently strengthened Democratic Party.

“I think it’s a one-off election because of the nature of the person on top of the ticket, the dynamic primary, the war, the economy and the high anxiety,” Bergstein said. “Democrats are foolish to think this is a real realignment.”

Bergstein also discussed the Oregon Senate race between Republican Gordon Smith and Democrat Jeff Merkley.

“Merkley did have such as enormous boost; Smith had such an enormous headwind,” Bergstein said.

He noted the superb Democratic organization singling out a statewide 4 a.m. literature drop. Here, groups trying to elect progressives brought campaign literature to thousands of young voters’ doors early election morning.

Summing up Oregon politics, Bergstein said, “Oregon has a blue tide and red ink.”

Successful politicians, he said, will find ways to support Democratic programs during a time of low state revenue. And, Bergstein noted, politics doesn’t stop.

“Even though we’ve just finished the 2008 elections, campaigns have begun for 2010,” he said. “As you walk around the Oregon legislature you will find a lot of people who wake up every morning, look in the mirror and say ‘I found the next governor.’”