After Livni's failure, Israel's political future is now anybody's guess

By LESLIE SUSSER

article created on: 2008-11-01T00:00:00

JERUSALEM (JTA)—With Israel now headed for new general elections
probably early next year, supporters and opponents of Tzipi Livni are
putting a very different gloss on her failure to form a governing
coalition.

Opponents say Livni’s inability shows she is not yet seasoned enough to
lead. Supporters counter that the reasons for her failure show
precisely why she is the best candidate.

Livni says that had she been willing to give in to excessive political
and budgetary demands by prospective coalition partners, she easily
could have formed a government. Instead she took a stand.

The foreign minister, who won the Kadima primary in September to
succeed party leader Ehud Olmert, portrays herself as a tough-minded
patriot who sacrificed the premiership to stave off demands that would
have hurt Israel’s national interest.

Her opponents suggest a less high-minded narrative: They say Livni
bungled coalition negotiations because of a fundamental lack of
experience.

Livni’s coalition effort was badly hurt by the adept political
maneuvering of opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu, the head of the
Likud Party. Netanyahu was able to convince three of Livni’s
prospective coalition partners—the Sephardic Orthodox Shas Party,
United Torah Judaism and the Pensioners’ Party—that he probably would
win in a general election campaign and would be more amenable to their
political and budgetary demands than Livni.

Netanyahu focused on Shas, the largest of the three with 12 Knesset
seats. The former prime minister spoke of renewing the “historic
alliance” between Likud and the right-wing Shas, declaring that if he
won the election Shas would be the first party he would ask to join his
coalition.

Shas probably would have been a difficult nut for Livni to crack in any
situation. Insiders say party leader Eli Yishai made a strategic
decision several months ago to force early elections and pre-empt a
looming leadership challenge from his charismatic predecessor, Arye
Deri.

Indeed, there were serious doubts as to whether he had negotiated with
Livni in good faith. Yishai made two key demands: an allocation of 1
billion shekels—approximately $260 million—for child allowances, and a
promise that Jerusalem would not be up for negotiation with the
Palestinians. On Jerusalem, Yishai demanded that Livni actually sign a
letter vowing to exclude the city from future peace talks.

“No American president would return a call from any Israeli prime
minister who signed such a letter,” Kadima negotiator Yisrael Maimon, a
former Cabinet secretary, declared.

Other challenges also made it difficult for Livni to cobble together a coalition.

Such negotiations typically take place after elections, with a full
four-year term looming. But because of Olmert’s resignation, Livni came
in mid-term with elections no more than two years away.

The notion of spending an abridged term in the opposition was less of a
deterrent for prospective coalition partners, and they raised their
coalition demands. Even the Pensioners’ Party produced a document with
some $786 million worth of new demands.

In the end, Livni said, she had no choice but to stop the horse trading and go for early elections.

Olmert likely will stay on as the caretaker prime minister until a new
government is formed after the elections. Though he is a lame duck—and
a disgraced one at that, having resigned under a cloud of corruption
investigations—Olmert may press ahead with his peacemaking efforts to
turn the next election into a referendum on peace.

Olmert also could step down and hand over the premiership to Livni,
giving her the incumbency advantage going into the next election. Some
Kadima leaders are talking openly about urging Olmert to make such a
move, but Olmert has not offered any indication that he is willing to
consider it.

Livni wants to hold new elections quickly. According to law, a majority
in the Knesset could have coalesced around another candidate for prime
minister and thereby averted the need for early elections, but
President Shimon Peres announced that after meeting with party leaders,
no such possibility existed.

Elections must be held by mid-February, but the Knesset could speed or
slow down the process by passing a law to dissolve itself and set a
precise election date. Livni prefers this route and has instructed the
Kadima caucus chairman to submit a bill with an election date as early
as possible.

Livni likely will base her campaign on her squeaky-clean image in an
era of political corruption and argue that of all the candidates, only
she can restore the public’s confidence in its government and politics.

She will cite her failure to form a coalition as evidence of her
high-principled approach, and her refusal to sign the “Jerusalem
letter” with Shas as proof of her sincere commitment to peacemaking
with the Palestinians.

Netanyahu will emphasize his experience, political smarts and special
economic skills—he is a former finance minister—in light of the global
financial crisis. He also will claim to be the only candidate who can
be counted upon to preserve a united Jerusalem.

Labor Party leader Ehud Barak, who was pilloried in the media for
demanding special powers in his coalition talks with Livni, will stress
his experience as a former prime minister as well as Labor’s long
leadership tradition.

Labor and Kadima are facing a serious tactical dilemma: They will be
competing for the same center-left political space, but if they attack
each other too viciously, Netanyahu will be the main beneficiary.

In the latest polls, Livni is slightly ahead of Netanyahu, with Barak a very distant third.

A Yediot Achronot poll gives Kadima 29 seats, Likud 26 and Labor 11; Ma’ariv has Kadima earning 31 seats, Likud 29 and Labor 11.
In the Yediot poll, the left-center and right-religious blocs are tied
with 60 seats each in the 120-member Knesset; Ma’ariv has the
left-center ahead, 61-59. The next prime minister needs a minimum of 61
seats in his or her coalition.