Upcoming elections won’t bring stability

Letter from Israel

By Nechemia Meyers

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In all probability, the forthcoming elections will leave us with results similar to those we got two years ago.

That is not to say that there will not be winners and losers. But the end result will be the same: an array of small to middle-sized parties that won’t be able to create a stable coalition government.

Things were different during the early years of the state when the Labor Party’s David Ben-Gurion dominated the government and the Knesset.

This is no longer the case and it is unlikely there will be a single dominant party in the foreseeable future.

Recent polls suggest that Netanyahu’s Likud can expect to win 35 seats, Barak’s Labor 19, and a Kadima faction led by Tzipi Livni 13. Another dozen existing parties would divide the rest.

Since that poll was taken, another three political parties have been established.

Likely to be the most successful of them is that of Arcadi Gaydamak, a Russian immigrant with millions of his personal funds to spend on electioneering.

Also planning to run in November are new political parties headed by Laborite rebel Ephraim Sneh and right-wing rebel Arieh Eldad, who has chosen an old name for his new party, Hatikva.

Israel’s electoral system, based as it is on proportional representation, encourages the emergence of small parties.

If, for example, a new list can pick up 3 percent of the votes from Metulla to Eilat, it gets three percent of the seats in the next Knesset.

So a future prime minister has to cobble together a coalition of six or seven parties—each with their own agenda—to create a coalition.

In this situation Israel can’t be divided into red and blue states in the like the United States. But there are areas where a particular party or group of parties can count on doing well.

For example, only Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox parties can expect votes in certain Jerusalem neighborhoods while the kibbutznikim can be counted on to support Labor or Meretz.

Only one party can be reasonably certain of being included in the next government, no matter by whom it is formed. That party is Shas, representing the poorer Orthodox voters of Middle Eastern origin.

Shas leaders emphasize religious issues and social welfare measures, with special emphasis on substantial allowances for large families.

If any major party is willing to accommodate Shas on those issues and to ensure that Shas institutions are bountifully financed, Shas votes are in the bag.

There isn’t quite the same unanimity among immigrants from the former Soviet Union, but it is generally assumed that most of them will support one of two right-wing parties, the Likud or Yisrael Beiteinu. In recognition of this fact those two parties are the only ones with full-time, Russian-language spokesmen.

A cynical footnote to the political hubbub sweeping the country has been provided by songwriter Arieh Zilber.

Speaking on behalf of an unnamed politician Zilber sings: “Sure I had ideals, but I’ve sold out every last one of them.”

Nechemia Meyers is a writer in Rehovot, Israel.